Note Précis March 6, 2020 – Best of Times and Worst of Times : The DJIA has dropped precipitously while swinging by several hundred points a day in late February/early March 2020. This behavior has scarcely been an exception among equity markets, worldwide. On a best of times and worst of times basis, it is […]
Note Précis January 23,2020: Q1/2020 – Diversify amid Unipolar Markets and Multipolar Risk: Amid unipolar markets and multipolar risk, we favor diversification in asset portfolios. The current GDP global growth levels would compare to levels close to 6% annually for global GDP growth for each of 2006 and 2007 and an average of 4% in […]
Note Précis November 1 ,2019: Markets and Sector Rotation – We expect capital market volatility to expand through Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities as well as Equities. It likely favors eclectic sector rotation and security selection over that geographical. Both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve appeared to change tack in the summer […]
Note Précis October 23 ,2019: Shifting Sands – Balancing Absolute versus Relative: In late 2019, the markets are likely experiencing the shifting sands of time, in particular on the balance between relative momentum expectations in vogue amid quantitative ease since 2009 versus absolute standards that do need to be addressed. In this regard, market internals […]
Note Précis October 10,2019: Q4/2019 – Markets in Likely Transition: The capital market performance of the last twelve months differs from the popular day- to-day often dwelt upon. In the summer of 2019 amid expectations of slower growth and more quantitative ease, global fixed income yields have declined, even into negative yields for several European […]
Note Précis October 3,2019: Market Gravitas- For the last quarter of 2019, three streams appear for investors. In capital market performance, the last twelve months should be seen beyond a currently popular day- to-day perspective. Global fixed income yields have declined substantially, even into negative yields for several European sovereign bonds. Still, market behavior appears […]
Note Précis September 5,2019: Not Time for Heroics – We see the present as being no time for heroics on investment. Current politics seem fractious and on a knife edge. Misjudgments would be costly for markets and growth. Only some pressure points include internally in Italy, Brazil and Britain as countries; Britain and Europe as well […]
Note Précis August 25,2019: Jackson Hole & G-7 Over,Challenges Remain – Market expectations seemed globally that conditions underway since 2009 would in late 2019 continue. Nonetheless, challenges remain. Unlike prior G-7 emphasis on commonality of purpose but like 2018 in Canada also, the G-7 of 2019 at Biarritz France has aired disagreements. A swathe of […]
Note Précis August 9,2019: Amid Volatility, Does the Bell Toll – At present, sovereign bond yields are low and in several cases negative. Daily stock market swings have turned intense, including sharp intraday losses converting into gains and then reversals the next day. Somewhat absent before in this cycle, currency issues loom currently between major […]
Markets Call a Spade a Spade
Note Précis March 13, 2020 – Markets Call a Spade a Spade: For months amid warnings by the IMF, OECD and other institutions about slowing global growth, market participants appeared focused on the singular polarity of the cycle since 2007, namely quantitative ease and solace from central banks. With the now WHO designated pandemic of […]