Note May 30,2019: Assessing the Valuation Weave- Unspecific developments that could suddenly flare are reasons for safety margins in industries from engineered products to food. That need for risk premiums appears currently skimmed over in capital markets. Central bank activity in general and especially quantitative ease have directly affected valuation in fixed income. Yet, we […]
Note May 1,2019: Markets Trysting the Night Away- In late 2018 and early 2019, there appeared only a brief pause to consider the long term impact of curbing quantitative ease. Now, markets appear again reverting to momentum whiletrysting the night away based on quantitative ease remaining massive led notably by the Federal Reserve and followed […]
Note April 13,2019: Q2/2019 – Conundrum Rests With Central Banks: Markets appear reverting in early Q2/2019 to in this cycle, once more focusing on quantitative ease, momentum and taking cues from the United States amid slowing global growth. Just a cycle or two prior to this one and from central bankers, gaining currency in the […]
Note March 27,2019: More of the Same and yet Different- At a mature phase of capital markets, more of the same appears and yet seems different at the same time. Compared to prior cycles of hubris, companies do appear more cognizant of the importance of revenues, margins and the like. Still needing care are share […]
Note March 13,2019: Contrary Core Developments – Contrary to our expectations for better balance, intense interplay remains between quantitative ease driven central bank policy and capital market activity. For instance and as often in this cycle, when concern builds on equities or elsewhere, major sovereign country benchmark fixed income yields decline, even flirting with zero […]
Note March 5,2019: Market Probing Forays, Likely Nothing More – Even as much is being made about the equity market recovery from the lows of late 2018, we see the more recent and volatile to-and-fro activity as being probing forays, likely nothing more. The Federal Reserve has announced a hiatus in rate increases as well […]
Note February 26,2019: Considering The Tides of March – Since 2009 with fleeting deviations, capital markets have come to be fixated on central bank policy, especially from the Federal Reserve. Its Semi-Annual Testimony to Congress of February 26, 2019, signals interregnum in rate increases and balance sheet reduction. Central banks may be anxious to not […]
Note February 8,2019: Markets On Worn Path- Subsequent to the start of 2019, we have been watching capital markets for points of reactive sensitivity. It seems to us that the markets remain on their worn path of this cycle, namely being overriding in dependence on central bank intonations, especially from the Federal Reserve; being willing […]
Note January 24,2019: Our take from the parable of Humpty Dumpty is that breaking something is a lot easier than was putting it together, let alone patching it up after breakage. Students of the political economy need to recognize the United States and British leadership from Bretton Woods in 1944 and many subsequent agreements versus […]
Volatility Warp Adds Up to What
Note June 12,2019: Volatility Warp Adds Up to What – Into mid-2019 in this market cycle, it is appropriate to assess what volatility warp adds up to. At the systemic level, recent events and challenges of the last decade exist amid a creep of politics back more into monetary affairs. As opposed to trader activity […]