Note Précis October 3,2019: Market Gravitas- For the last quarter of 2019, three streams appear for investors. In capital market performance, the last twelve months should be seen beyond a currently popular day- to-day perspective. Global fixed income yields have declined substantially, even into negative yields for several European sovereign bonds. Still, market behavior appears […]
Note Précis September 5,2019: Not Time for Heroics – We see the present as being no time for heroics on investment. Current politics seem fractious and on a knife edge. Misjudgments would be costly for markets and growth. Only some pressure points include internally in Italy, Brazil and Britain as countries; Britain and Europe as well […]
Note Précis August 25,2019: Jackson Hole & G-7 Over,Challenges Remain – Market expectations seemed globally that conditions underway since 2009 would in late 2019 continue. Nonetheless, challenges remain. Unlike prior G-7 emphasis on commonality of purpose but like 2018 in Canada also, the G-7 of 2019 at Biarritz France has aired disagreements. A swathe of […]
Note Précis August 9,2019: Amid Volatility, Does the Bell Toll – At present, sovereign bond yields are low and in several cases negative. Daily stock market swings have turned intense, including sharp intraday losses converting into gains and then reversals the next day. Somewhat absent before in this cycle, currency issues loom currently between major […]
Note Précis July 23,2019: Renewed Ease, Renewed Market Subsidy- Prolonged state ownership of capital assets peaked in the late 1970s, to be unwound on efficiency grounds over the subsequent two decades. Freer market proponents need to consider efficiency risks as another arm of government now again expands in effect the prolonged subsidy of capital assets. […]
Note Précis July 10,2019: Valuation versus Meeting Consensus as Market Driver – Investing requires a broader context than momentum, whether at the country or company level. Capital market valuation is elevated. Consensus growth was cut and low for example for S&P 500 earnings and declining for global economic growth. Meeting consensus as market sufficing has […]
Note Précis June 27,2019: Irregular Volatility Flareups- Amid recent capital market behavior, central bank stances and political developments worldwide, we reassert that diversification is needed. Assets like precious metals and cash should be part of an investment portfolio. Quality has relevance, irrespective of instant gratification. Perceived liquidity is not equivalent to real such. Over three […]
Note Précis June 12,2019: Volatility Warp Adds Up to What – Into mid-2019 in this market cycle, it is appropriate to assess what volatility warp adds up to. At the systemic level, recent events and challenges of the last decade exist amid a creep of politics back more into monetary affairs. As opposed to trader […]
Note Précis May 30,2019: Assessing the Valuation Weave- Unspecific developments that could suddenly flare are reasons for safety margins in industries from engineered products to food. That need for risk premiums appears currently skimmed over in capital markets. Central bank activity in general and especially quantitative ease have directly affected valuation in fixed income. Yet, […]
Q4/2019 – Markets in Likely Transition
Note Précis October 10,2019: Q4/2019 – Markets in Likely Transition: The capital market performance of the last twelve months differs from the popular day- to-day often dwelt upon. In the summer of 2019 amid expectations of slower growth and more quantitative ease, global fixed income yields have declined, even into negative yields for several European […]