Note Oct 11, 2024: Q4/2024 –Slow and Steady to Win as Nexus Evolves Much bears monitoring in a world of around 2 ½-3% annual global GDP growth. It consists of around 2% in the U.S. and advanced countries. China seems at close to 4 ½% annually. Clearly toxic are the wars in Ukraine and the […]
Note Sep. 3 2024: Momentum Dominance and Valuation Agnosticism To Fade. Capital Markets are likely to reprioritize their issues. Our contribution lies in curating to balance, not to pretend to be the savviest economist or the sharpest trader or political wonk. Markets are likely processing exit from momentum dominance and valuation agnosticism. In signaling room […]
Note Jul. 24,2024: Q3/2024 –Eddies Swirl In Market Waters – The role of risk premiums is to cushion against hitherto unknown developments and not just precisely defined uncertainties. Complacent market behavior has appeared in pining for minimal administered rates and momentum. Being seen are 12 month junk bond yield lows and feverish momentum in a […]
Note Jun 14 2024: Fractious Environment Requires Steady Hand Central Banks – Well into 2025, capital market selectivity is more likely than is an encore for momentum. We suggest diversification in equities and short duration in fixed income. Since the breaking of the $35/oz. compact over a half century ago, Gold bullion has recorded just […]
Note May 18 2024: Ephemeral Rate Cuts And Expectation Mismatch Challenges- The central thesis of pricing in the capital market of today appears to complacently hinge around policies of central banks being either to be positioned or being otherwise forced into providing ease on demand. Yet, the several rate cuts widely expected at the start […]
Note Apr. 21 2024: Q2/2024 – Capital Markets Sketch Change – In late April 2024, exogenous and internal facets underscore that capital markets have started to sketch change. It will likely be abrupt and rocky. Amid a massive election period and tepid global growth, outright physical and trade wars exist. A missed opportunity worldwide has […]
Note Mar. 6, 2024: A Quest for Balance – Early 2024 has contained massive upswings in capital markets, globally and across segments. Still, the global political environment from wars to trade to elections is the most tense since the end of the cold war and arguably since the end of World War II. In a […]
Note Feb 16, 2024: In Pushing Ahead Can Lie Market Folies – Capital markets folies in pushing the can ahead should be of concern. Data is reflected in steady/high rates for longer from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Bank of England and even the ECB despite its national spectrums. While China battles asset deflation […]
Note Jan. 23,2024: Q1/2024 – Market Run On Wild Side. After the FOMC of December 13, 2023 and into early 2024, capital markets globally have run on the wild side ostensibly based on both early Federal Reserve (and others) ease and recovery. Such repositioning has appeared from equities worldwide to junk corporate fixed income; from […]
Note Nov. 20 , 2024: Many a Slip Between Cup and the Lip
Note Nov. 20 , 2024: Many a Slip Between Cup and the Lip. In late 2024, equities remained in sharp upswing. A priority for countries is likely to be addressing basic costs of living populist aggrievances. It contrasts with reported inflation data favored by monetary authorities. Sharp wars and defense tensions demand increased spending. Many […]