Note June 15,2018: No Lazy, Hazy Time – The summer of 2018 is likely to be no lazy, hazy time. Three immediate aspects loom for capital markets, namely trade which is the lifeblood of economies; local and worldwide politics that are the lifeblood of stability; and central bank policies which are the lifeblood of capital […]
Note June 4,2018: Rising Interface of Policy and Market Volatility After initial sell offs ostensibly on the Italian political impasse, worldwide equity markets moved up sharply and fixed income yields stabilized. We do not see wild swings as signals of rude health. In reality, capital markets are less efficient than many model. Real life participants tend […]
Note May 23,2018: Risk Premiums, Inconsistencies and Weak Links – In any market, risk premiums need monitoring, not just in overall terms but also at weak links for creaks and inconsistencies. Many rationalizations are tardy, after the fact of breaks. Currently all more so than in the past, global links do matter. Politicians prefer to […]
Note May 9,2018: Multipolar Jolt and Grind Markets – Since early 2018, investments have likely entered into multipolar jolt and grind capital market performance. As such, they have likely evolved from a decade long tryst with massive quantitative ease as dominant interlocutor. In fact in Zurich on May 8, 2018, the Federal Reserve Chairman made […]
Note May 2,2018: Uncomfortable Light of Being Belligerently Brusque – In geopolitics over North Korea and Iran policy, the risks are those of lost credibility in being belligerently brusque and then being weak in follow through. Iran especially is far more diverse than North Korea. In appearing capricious in both the claims and the application […]
Note April 25,2018: Inflection Still Looms – In the equities, fixed income, currencies and commodities space of capital markets as well as in politics, whether raw or on trade. The Federal Reserve with a new Chairman has emphasis on reducing its massive quantitative ease, likely with other central banks at differing paces. Unlike say 1987, […]
Note April 21,2018: Q2/2018 – Markets, Algorithms and the Political Economy. Adding up to expanded volatility when compared to 2017 are the actual market levels of today in equities and fixed income, the new algorithmic data centricity of today and the assumptions of many market and economic models compared to more classical behavioral views of […]
Note March 27, 2018 – When Elephants Rumble: The grass gets trampled – an old African adage. Amid wholesale leadership team remakes in all of the United States, China and Russia, the political risk becomes that none can afford to lose face. The Korea, Levant and south Asia regions remain tense. Point and counter point […]
Note March 21, 2018 – World In An Oyster: In this third week of March 21,2018 alone, there have been developments that are likely to determine outcomes over the next 12-18 months. These developments include leadership and trade politics worldwide; leadership and policy evolution at central banks and within equity markets, the differing sector compositions […]
Neither Spiraling Nor Soaring Markets
Note June 27,2018: Neither Spiraling Nor Soaring Markets – As the first half of 2018 draws to a close, prevailing events mean neither spiraling nor soaring markets are likely. A readjustment of risk premiums is needed in the current cycle, divergent from the complacency prior to 2018. Daily and intraday swings of 2% in equity […]