Note October 29,2018: Alternate Universe – Recurring vs. Amplitude of Delivery. Over the decade of massive quantitative ease, the generally accepted universe has been one of ample liquidity and of low interest rate policies including the suppression of fixed income yields. Progress has been uneven and the efficacy of prolonging quantitative ease has become questionable. […]
Note October 15,2018: Q4/2018 – A Time for Reappraisal not Jingoism: Our asset mix focal point in this cycle has been on the unusual nature and extent of quantitative ease with the collateral side effects potentially obscure but likely to unfold with the passage of time. Hence, we have suggested above benchmark cash reserves, fixed […]
Note September 26,2018 – Search Beyond QE For More Solid Ground: After a decade of basking in quantitative ease that in equities included massive mainly U.S. share buy backs, capital markets will likely search for different solid ground. Capital markets will potentially be more volatile. Common for more mature phase capital markets, fraying in 2018 […]
Note September 12,2018: Foggy Clarity- As this market cycle has lengthened and as in many prior ones, foggy clarity protestations appear such as suggesting near term corrections could occur but also about being bullish for the long term. They arguably appear as throwaway. Afterall, few would be in an endeavor which they felt was doomed […]
Note September 4,2018: Forewarned Is To Be Forearmed – In the markets as elsewhere, to be forewarned is to be forearmed. Especially U.S. led, equities have been in a seemingly relentless upswing with little correction, valuation notwithstanding. Fixed income yields have remained low, with only the curious mix of U.S. Treasury, BBB Corporates and Emerging […]
Note August 14,2018: Data Driven versus Whimsy Oriented – At present, data driven versus whimsy considerations have wide relevance – from the interface between politics and trade to capital markets and valuation to central bank policies. In addition to global conflagration over terrorism that is difficult to incorporate except in extremis, volatility in the terms […]
Note July 27,2018: Q3/2018 – Much Ado About A Lot. Unlike the experience of recent years, friction between fiscal policy and monetary strictures have been more of a norm within which capital markets operate, most recently into the 1990s. It makes risk premium vigilance necessary. Given the size and duration of quantitative ease fostering complacency, […]
Note July 18,2018: A Chockful of Developments – A chockful of developments range from politics to policy to growth and into corporate reporting season. In politics, it has already been extraordinary. The emergence of checks and balances is overdue but does remain to be seen. The potential impact of the faux pas of late exceed […]
Note July 11,2018: A Question of Balance – Equity markets extrude large index level point moves. A question of balance still prevails. It includes that between transactional activity versus a long term strategic focus. This balance has been under pressure. It is so not just in politics for instance in the rise of populism in […]
Salient Divergences from Past
Note November 4,2018: Salient Divergences from Past. The to-and-fro swings in equity markets and an unmistakable rise in fixed income yields from their cycle lows indicate a salient channel of divergencies from assumptions that until recently were commonplace in capital markets. A new level of uncertainty in Europe has been injected with a series of […]